Devoted readers, all seven of you (hi Adam!) will recall that I recently finished reading The Hunger Games by Suzanne Collins (which was, yes, kick-awesome) and I can't help but believe that that fight-to-the-death last-man-standing battle royale would liven up this crop of 12. The worst final 12 ever. I can stand one Sanjaya or one Haley Scarnato, but 5 bundles of crap??? That's not really fair, because I really think that there have been only 3 completely mind-bogglingly bad ousters, so in reality we should only have 2 craptastic contestants in the finals. Which is par for the course.
So, in pity and obligation, I give you my run-down of the worthy, and the butterworthy (I'm trying not to swear), in order from how I see things shaking out:
1. Crystal Bachelor-and-the-Bobby-Sox.
Why she'll win: Singer-songwriters have it tough on AI. They are admittedly awesome, but they have to deal with a format that requires them to fill bigger and bigger stages as they move on. The show is mean for the Kellys and the Davids, not the introspective geeks. But CB seems to have the presence to by more Kris Allen than Brooke White in that department. Plus that early intervention with the Whitestrips only helps.
Why she won't: She's admitted that she's only doing AI for the money. Somehow, selling out and "lowering" herself to this show might not play well with the heartland. Plus, can even she pull off a genuine fake smile during group numbers for 11 more weeks?
Channels the spirit of: Jason Castro's cool, with David Cook's air of superiority.
2. Siobhan Magnus.
Why she'll win: Duh, she's from Boston, and Boston's the best. Also, she's the closest thing to a typical AI contestant - big voice, dorky personality. Look where that got Kelly Clarkson.
Why she won't: In the time it took me to write this, she just said the word "the."
Spirit of: Katherine McPhee's ethereal voice, with Kellie Pickler's IQ.
Why he'll win: He's earnest. He has a radio-ready voice. He has a secret dark past that producers don't want you to learn about. He thinks outside the box regarding song choices (see Owl City). And he's purty. At least I think so.
Why he won't: Dude can't sing in key. Kinda, you know, required for a singing comp.
Spirit of: Kris Allen's laid-back adorableness, with Amanda Overmyer's lack of pitch.
4. Didididididi Benamimimimimimi.
Why she'll win: She's a less threatening (read: more conventionally pretty) version of Lilly Scott.
Why she won't: Did I say less threatening? I meant less... good.
Spirit of: Brooke White, minus the 'tude.
5. Andrew Garcia.
Why he'll win: Did you hear Straight Up? I mean, did you hear it? We all know he's capable of surprising us and knocking homers out-da-park.
Why he won't: He reminds me of Danny Gokey. Also, remember Sundance Head and Chris Sligh? Me neither. (Well, I do, but that's because I'm an AI nerd.)
Spirit of: Kris Allen's pension for remixing (and, according to Kara, Adam Lambert, snuh???), Scott Savol's on-air "personality".
6. Michael Lynche
Why he'll win: This. Woman's. Work. I've been watching too much RuPaul's Drag Race because I just typed that thinking "You betta werrrrk." But seriously, song selection is important, and Big Mike showed that he has impeccable taste. Also, how much would it suck to send him home after he missed the birth of his child?
Why he won't: How much would it rule to send him home after he missed the birth of his child?
Spirit of: Ruben Studdard, sans the talent.
7. Casey James
Why he'll win: Despite Kara's fawning, CJ isn't half-bad. He's like Keith Urban, only uglier. I'm saying that's a compliment. Because I don't think that he'll get by on his looks, nor does he need to.
Why he won't: Kara likes him. Everyone hates Kara. Transitive property yadda yadda.
Spirit of: Ace Young's "looks." Michael Johns's "looks." Constantine Maroulis's "looks." Chris Richardson's "looks". All of their voices.
8. Lacey Brown
Why she'll win: She reminds me of a chinchilla. Maybe a hedge-hog.
Why she won't: That goes for her voice, too.
Spirit of: Megan Joy's flotsam, Amy Adams's hair, Nikki McKibbin's ungodly ability to advance, Vanessa Olivarez's star power. Jon-Peter Lewis's aw-shucks likeability.
9. Tim Urban
Why he'll win: Have you seen him shirtless?
Why he won't: Have you heard him sing?
Spirit of: Sanjaya's notoriety, with Haley Scarnato's attractiveness equivalent for boys. Both of their voices.
10. Paige Miles.
Why she'll win: She's got the blessing of Simon, and that's not an insignificant thing. As much as Randy and Kara (and Paula, still, I'm sure) think they matter, they don't. And during Paige's invite interview, Simon off-the-cuff said she was good. Il Divo aside, that means something.
Why she won't: Simon also said that about Carmen Rasmussen. (And, to be fair, Il Divo.)
Spirit of: Lil Rounds's unfulfilled promise of a good voice.
The requisite crappy people: What's his name and what's her face. Combined age: 26. Combined talent: Todrick Hall. ZING! The worst of Kevin Covais, Ramiele Malubay, and John Stevens, all rolled into one, well, two, totally not-read-for-prime-time contestants. Sorry, Aaron and Katie, give it a few years.
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